Strategy 1Strategy 2
%profitable/number of trades % / % /
profit/loss per trade pips / pips pips pips
Kelly fraction1/Account protection2 / % / %
Execute Simulation with traders    
profit factor (Lotsize=const) calc. sim. calc. sim.
Expected payoff (pips) calc. sim. calc. sim.
average profit/loss (pips) calc. sim. total calc. sim. total
% traders with profit (pips) % total on avg. % total on avg.
% traders with loss (pips) % total on avg. % total on avg.
accumulated
profit/loss
distribution
(pips)
Kelly Stake (calc.) % (max.) % (fract.) % (max.) % (fract.)
Lotsize (calc.)3 see footnote! (max.) (fract.) (max.) (fract.)
Exp. growth per trade (calc.) % (max.) % (fract.) % (max.) % (fract.)
Exp. growth total (calc.)4 % (max.) % (fract.) % (max.) % (fract.)
avg balance growth mean/median4 % (sim.) % (sim.) % (sim.) % (sim.)
% traders with balance profit % % profit on avg. % % profit on avg.
% traders with balance loss % % loss on avg. % % loss on avg.
Balance distribution
with fractional Kelly trading
and account protection
Input the values of your EA so that 1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
2Instead of using Lotsize ~ Balance (B), with Account protection (AP) one of the folowing CRRA utility functions is used
pow: Lotsize ~ ((B/B0+1)(1-AP)-1)/(1-AP)
log: Lotsize ~ ln(B/B0*ln(1/(1-AP))+1)/ln(1/(1-AP))
3 valid for account balances with money equivalent of 1 lot x 1.000 pips, i.e. balance=10.000 $ and lotsize 1 stands for 1 pip = 10 $
4 The calculated values are correct, when there are sufficient many trades (otherwise the binomial distribution must be used) and when there is no account protection, so the distribution is log normal and the median is equal to the geometric mean. For log-normal there is mean>median, for Kelly fraction->0 the distribution becomes normal and mean->median. With certain combinations of Kelly fraction/Account protection it is possible to transform the log normal distribution into a more favourable one with a higher median by abandoning the high mean caused by the "fat tail" which is "mainly meaningless".
See also:


Disclaimer:

This webpage is for educational info and exchange of trading ideas. Nothing mentioned here is to be taken as trading advice. Nothing on this page in any way is a solicitation to buy, sell or hold any securities for any reason. You should consult your broker or financial advisor before placing any trade! All Trading has RISKS. You must understand and accept all risks associated with any trades that you place after consulting your broker. Under certain situations it is possible to lose your entire account. You never risk more than you can afford to lose.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under or overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight, no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There are numerous other factors related to the futures and commodity markets in general or to the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

 U.S. Government Required Disclaimer: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This letter is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this letter. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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CFTC rule 4.41: Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.